Petrol diesel prices may rise by ₹10 to ₹12, gold silver rates could also see sharp increase

New Delhi (The Uttam Hindu): Tensions in West Asia have intensified following the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in US and Israeli attacks. If the conflict prolongs and the strategic oil route, the Strait of Hormuz, gets blocked, it could directly impact the global energy market and India’s economy.

Possible surge in petrol diesel prices

India imports nearly 85–90% of its crude oil requirement, a major portion of which passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Experts believe that if supply through this route is disrupted, global crude oil prices could rise from the current level of around $70 per barrel to $100–120 per barrel.

In such a situation, petrol prices in Delhi may increase from ₹95 per litre to ₹105, while diesel could rise from ₹88 to ₹96 per litre. However, the final decision will depend on several factors.

In India, fuel prices are determined by government oil marketing companies based on the average global crude oil prices over the past 15 days and the rupee-dollar exchange rate. However, taxes imposed by the Centre and state governments form a significant part of the final consumer price. Therefore, while companies may theoretically raise prices, government policy remains crucial. During war-like conditions, the government may cut taxes or advise companies to maintain price stability to control inflation.

Record surge likely in gold silver

In times of war and uncertainty, investors often turn to safe assets. Commodity market experts estimate that gold prices could rise from around ₹1.60 lakh per 10 grams to ₹1.90 lakh. Similarly, silver, currently priced at approximately ₹2.67 lakh per kilogram, may climb to ₹3.50 lakh per kilogram.

Analysts say that if the situation in the Gulf worsens further, stock market volatility could increase, prompting investors to move even more towards safer assets.

Challenge for India

Due to its dependence on energy imports, keeping the Strait of Hormuz open is vital for India. Any disruption could affect not only petrol and diesel prices but also transportation costs, inflation, stock markets, and household expenses. The government is currently monitoring the situation and will frame its strategy based on global market trends.