BNP surges ahead in Bangladesh elections, Jamaat struggles; India on high alert

New Delhi (The Uttam Hindu) : Following the overthrow of Sheikh Hasina's government in Bangladesh, general elections are scheduled for February 12, 2026. Political parties are increasingly active in this election. As the election draws closer, internal conflicts within political parties are also being exposed. However, amid this, opinion polls show the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) gaining the upper hand.

Last month's poll showed a close contest between the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami. However, the BNP has overtaken the Jamaat, with 70 percent saying they would vote for the late Khaleda Zia's party. Jamaat received only 19 percent support.

Tarique Rahman's return to his country after 17 years is a major turning point not only for Bangladeshi politics but also for the BNP. Rahman's return has energized party leaders and workers. According to an opinion poll by Eminence Associates for Social Development (EASD), the National Citizens Party (NCP), formed after last year's violence in Bangladesh and the toppling of Sheikh Hasina's government, has received only 2.9 percent support. Pollsters said the BNP is gaining support for several reasons. One factor is that the death of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia is also providing emotional support to the BNP.

Another aspect is that the return of Zia's son, Tariq Rahman, has strengthened the party. Tariq has already entered the electoral fray since his return, and its impact is being felt among the people. The

third aspect is that since the overthrow of Hasina's government, criminality has become rampant in Bangladesh, violence has reached its peak, and the radical Jamaat-e-Taiba (JeM) is being held responsible. An Intelligence Bureau official stated that people understand that if Jamaat-e-Taiba comes to power, it will never be a free country, as the ISI will have complete control. The

common people of the country want peace, development, and prosperity, not a country governed by religion. The official added that they absolutely do not want a country like Iran, and people understand what the situation will be like if the ISI-backed Jamaat-e-Taiba comes to power.

The opinion poll also revealed that many of Sheikh Hasina's supporters are abandoning the Awami League and now supporting the BNP. However, this could also be due to the Awami League's absence from the elections. Experts also suggest that the Awami League has been banned from contesting elections, and this may be why its supporters are supporting the BNP. Another aspect of this is that numerous Awami League supporters and those close to Hasina have been targeted in the past year, with several such incidents reported last year. Therefore, the BNP may be a better option to avoid any kind of violence or trouble. According to the survey, 60 percent of Awami League supporters now say they will vote for the BNP. 25 percent of Awami League supporters said they would support Jamaat. The poll stated that the Jatiya Party received only 1.4 percent support. According to the poll, the BNP enjoys strong support among women, with 71 percent saying they would vote for the party. It's worth noting that Bangladesh's first female Prime Minister, Khaleda Zia, also belonged to this party. The BNP remains dominant in Rajshahi and Chittagong, and is expected to garner 70 percent of the vote there.

The survey, conducted between December 20 and January 1, also stated that 77 percent of people are confident that the BNP will come to power. According to officials, it should be noted that Jamaat is rapidly losing its hold on the country. The politics of religion and blind support from the ISI did not work in its favor. Another official said that Jamaat fell into the trap of the ISI and is losing public support by following its script. The official also said that most Bangladeshis want a peaceful country governed by the Constitution, not Sharia law. India would hope for a BNP government in the neighboring country. After Khaleda Zia's death, Prime Minister Narendra Modi wrote an emotional note, which Foreign Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar delivered to Rahman. Experts said that the Indian government is talking to several members of the BNP leadership, and if the party comes to power, formal relations between the two countries will improve. Intelligence Bureau officials said that the BNP's progress is a good sign. However, they also warned that violence could escalate, and that the Jamaat-ISI duo would like the elections postponed. Officials said the two were trying to create an atmosphere of fear and panic, using the atmosphere as a pretext to justify postponing the elections.

Over the past 18 days, indiscriminate violence has resulted in the targeted killing of six Hindus. In the past 24 hours, two Hindus were murdered by extremists. Intelligence agencies have warned that such incidents are likely to increase, and violence will escalate ahead of the elections. An Intelligence Bureau official said that high alert will be required along the border as it is likely that the ISI will try to ensure that this frenzy spreads into India.