Sri Lanka: The hurdle blocking Pakistan's T20 World Cup semi-final dreams

Kandy (The Uttam Hindu): The final Super 8 match of Group 2 of the T20 World Cup 2026 will be played between Pakistan and Sri Lanka at the Pallekele International Cricket Stadium in Kandy on Saturday. Sri Lanka has been eliminated from the tournament, but this match is crucial for Pakistan. If Pakistan manages to secure a convincing victory over Sri Lanka, it could secure a place in the semi-finals.

Defeating Sri Lanka in the T20 World Cup has never been easy for Pakistan. The two teams have faced each other four times in T20 World Cup history, with each team emerging victorious twice. Each time, it has been a close contest. The last time Sri Lanka and Pakistan faced each other in the World Cup was in 2012, and Sri Lanka won that match by 16 runs.

To make it to the semi-finals, Pakistan will need to secure a big win over Sri Lanka, which doesn't seem easy considering the World Cup statistics. The overall head-to-head statistics are certainly in Pakistan's favor. Out of 29 matches, Pakistan has won 17, while Sri Lanka has emerged victorious in 12. Looking at the equation necessary for Pakistan's victory in the match between Pakistan and Sri Lanka, Pakistan will not only need to win, but also improve its run rate to better than New Zealand's to reach the semi-finals. New Zealand has 3 points and a run rate of +1.390. Pakistan has 1 point from 2 matches and a run rate of -0.461.

A win over Sri Lanka would earn Pakistan two points, equaling New Zealand's three. However, to surpass New Zealand's run rate, Pakistan would need to either win by 64 runs or achieve any target in 13.1 overs. A win in either of these two scenarios could send Pakistan to the semi-finals.